17 September 2009
US 'to cut missile defence plan'
BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/americas/8260230.stm


Iranian test of Shahab-2 missile, November 2006The US is to abandon its plan to develop a missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The paper said it would be dropped because Iran's long-range missile plans were less advanced than predicted.

Czech officials said Barack Obama had spoken to their prime minister, while a Polish official said the shield might no longer be deployed in Poland.

The plan antagonised Russia, which saw it as a direct threat.

President Obama earlier this year ordered a review of the defence system, introduced by his predecessor George W Bush.

 

European protection

"From different sources we hear there are serious chances the shield won't be deployed here"

Czech deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer

In August 2008, the US signed a deal with Poland to site interceptors at a base near the Baltic Sea, and with the Czech Republic to build a radar station on its territory.

A Czech government spokesman said Mr Obama spoke to Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer on Wednesday, but declined to release further details.

In Poland, deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer told Reuters news agency: "From different sources we hear there are serious chances the shield won't be deployed here."

US missile rethink a huge shift
By Paul Reynolds,
World affairs correspondent BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/ 1/low/world/americas/8260406.stm

A US decision to drop plans to base an anti-ballistic missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic would be a huge shift in American foreign and defence policy by the Obama administration.

The decision was reported in the Wall Street Journal and official word is expected during the day.

Implications
The implications of such a move would include the following:

First, it would be a major signal, which has followed a number of others, that the United States is adopting a far more cautious foreign policy under President Obama than it did under President Bush.

President Bush was determined on the European-based system and agreements had been reached with Poland to base 10 anti-missile interceptors there and with the Czechs for them to house the system's radar.

President Obama ordered a review when he came into office and apparently does not see the need for such a hurry. His experts seem to be telling him that Iran - the cause of all this deployment - is not after all quite so advanced in its ballistic missile technology.

The second effect would be on US relations with Russia. Here the picture will be mixed. The Russians will be pleased and therefore relations will be eased. The Russians had claimed the system might be a threat to them, though the US said it would not. The US felt that the Russians were simply making an excuse to meddle in the affairs of their near neighbours.

But the Russians might also feel triumphant and conclude that their tough approach is one that brings respect and results.

Thirdly, this might indicate that the Obama team will be looking as sceptically at claims that Iran is developing an actual nuclear weapon. That could mean a reluctance to attack Iranian nuclear plants without rock-solid information, though this would not necessarily stop the Israelis from doing so.

Fourthly, the Polish and Czech governments might have mixed feelings. They had invested considerable capital in agreeing to the system. Some hardliners might feel let down. Others might be relieved. There will be debates about the long-term US commitment to Europe.

Fifthly, on the military side, this would herald a shift of emphasis in the whole US anti-missile defence strategy.

According to the Wall Street Journal account, the emphasis will now be on regional defence. The Israeli example might be a good one. The US is co-operating with the Israelis on the Arrow anti-missile missile and on a shorter range missile interceptor known as David's Sling.

Such methods will now come to the fore. And the existing Aegis ship-based defence, already deployed near Japan, will also have renewed importance. Paul.Reynolds-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk

The missile shield was expected to be fully operational by 2012.

Washington said the European sites were needed to protect European allies and US forces in Europe from Iran or another country.

However, the Wall Street Journal reported: "The US will base its decision on a determination that Iran's long-range missile program has not progressed as rapidly as previously estimated, reducing the threat to the continental US and major European capitals, according to current and former US officials."

Short-range threat

The newspaper, quoting unnamed sources, said the White House would order "a shift towards the development of regional missile defences for the Continent" to combat the threat from Iran's short- and medium-range missiles.

An announcement is expected later by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and military staff at a news conference , the Associated Press reported.

Iran says its missile development programme is solely for scientific, surveillance or defensive purposes, but there are concerns in the West and among Iran's neighbours that the rockets could be used to carry nuclear weapons.

As part of long-running efforts to tackle the issue, Iran will hold talks on its nuclear programme on 1 October with the UK, China, France, Russia and the US - the five permanent UN Security Council members - and Germany.

'Rogue' states

The Wall Street Journal said the Obama administration "was expected to leave open the option of restarting the Polish and Czech system if Iran makes advances in its long-range missiles in the future."

Russia saw the US missile plan as a direct threat to itself, despite US assurances that it was aimed at "rogue" states, such as Iran.

A Russian foreign minister spokesman was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying Russia was awaiting confirmation of the reports.

"In principle, such a development of the situation would correspond to the interests of the development of our bilateral relations with the USA," the spokesman said.

In November, Russia moved its own ballistic missiles to Kaliningrad, between Nato member states Lithuania and Poland to "neutralise - if necessary - the [US] anti-missile system", President Dmitry Medvedev said at the time.

Mr Medvedev also said Russia would jam the US anti-missile system electronically.

 

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