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'ROKS
Sejong the Great (DDG 991) during the 2008 Busan International Fleet Review'
The reality of the partition of the Korean peninsula is
certainly also revealed in the US's plan for a missile defense (MD) system. That
is because North Korea, as the chief pretext for the promotion of MD, became the
central issue in persuading South Korea to serve as the advanced base for the
US's MD system. The Obama administration, which has just been inaugurated into
this maelstrom, is more cautious about MD than the era of the Bush
administration was. On the other hand, the Lee Myeong Bak administration, which
regards the ROK-US "strategic alliance" structure as the supreme diplomatic and
security policy objective, is more positive about MD than the Kim Dae Jung and
Ro Mu Hyeon administrations were. Just at this point, the unsynchronized
movements of the latest South-North-US three-party relationship are hidden.
Furthermore, since MD dominates the complicated structure of relations between
the US-Japanese alliance and the Chinese-Russian collaboration system, if the
ROK clumsily inserts itself into that, it will not be a case of
"bridge-building" between continental power and sea power; the ROK can be
degraded as a "scapegoat". While such a situation is also developing in
Northeast Asia, the ROK could find itself in a position like that of Poland,
where the US-Russian controversy over the installation of an MD system in
Eastern Europe resembles a "Second Cold War".
For the ROK, there are three categories of MD projects. First, the US is
deploying an MD system inside the ROK; second, the government is promoting what
it insists is an independent "Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD)". These two
kinds are the models that are moving forward at present. And for the third,
there is a question of whether the ROK will officially take part in the US's MD
system. Of course, these three kinds are not completely separate. Participation
by Poland and the Czech Republic in the MD system, disputed between the US and
Russia, doesn't mean that these countries are purchasing the MD system, rather
they are permitting the US to station its MD system on their territory.
Similarly, without any connection to official announcements, the deployment of
the US's MD system in the ROK can by itself be taken to mean that the ROK is
already taking part in the MD system. Also, even though there is a political and
diplomatic difference between the KAMD and official participation in the US's MD
system, there is a close connection in the sense that there is no option but to
integrate them in terms of military technologies.
The ROK's MD plans
Since the Lee Myeong Bak government was inaugurated, signs of a subtle but
important change in the ROK's policy on missile defense have appeared. Above
all, the Lee Myeong Bak government is giving impetus to the construction of the
KAMD that had been considered at the time of the Kim Dae Jung and Ro Mu Hyeon
governments and was in the initial phase of promotion. Military authorities have
announced a plan to sink an estimated 300 billion won (250 milion dollars) into
a "missile tracking and interception operations control center (AMD-Cell)",
which will have full charge of the mission of monitoring and intercepting North
Korean missiles, and to construct it by 2012. They also decided on a plan to buy
early-warning radar with a detection range of about 500 km, and a plan to
complete the selection of the kinds of apparatus, focused on the Israeli Elta
company's Green Pine and the French-Dutch joint Thales Raytheon Systems
company's M3R, by April this year and to make the purchase next year. In
addition, in stages, from this year to 2011, three Aegis vessels' AN/SPY-1D(V)
radar will be deployed on active duty, and four units of the aerial early
warning system (AEWS), scheduled to be introduced by 2012, will also play the
part of the ROK MD's "sensor".
Together with this, the plan is that 48 Patriot-2 (PAC-2) missiles brought from
Germany by this year and medium-range surface-to-air missiles, called "Soot-2",
will take on the role of the ROK MD's interceptor missiles. In order to enhance
the interception capability, they are investigating the possibility of gradually
installing missiles, including the SM-6, on Aegis ships, and the second SAM-X
project for additional interceptors. Since the Lee Myeong Bak administration was
installed, these are the most important indicators that tell us that the "ROK
type of MD", forming a line of interceptor missiles -- sensors -- operational
control centers, appears to be starting in earnest .
When we look at it in political terms, KAMD can appear to be independent.
However, when we consider the special character of the military structure known
as the ROK-US mutual defense system, and the nature of its interoperabilities,
joint MD military operations with the US are unavoidable. USFK commanders
constantly emphasize the point that the KAMD must be combined and employed with
the US's system. Also, concerning participation in MD, the ROK's Minister of
Defense likewise said in February this year that, "An investigation at the
national strategic level is necessary, considering the ROK-US alliance and the
security conditions on the Korean peninsula, the budget requirements, etc."
While this kind of ROK type of MD appears to be independent, in actuality it
seems that most probably it will be integrated into the US system.
How much will it cost?
An extravagant sum of money is required for MD, so much that in the US, it is
known as "the goose that laid the golden eggs" to the military sector and
"money-swallowing hippopotamus" to the taxpayer. If that is the case, how much
will the ROK's MD participation cost in economic terms? Of course the
appropriation is different, depending on the scale and components of MD. The
PAC-2 that the ROK is purchasing from Germany costs a trillion won
[about $0.7 billion], and if they
upgrade this to the PAC-3, it will cost as much as an additional one trillion
won [about $0.7 billion]. It is
estimated that it would also cost as much as one to two trillion won
[about $0.7~1.4 billion] to equip
three Aegis vessels with SM-2 Block 4 and SM-6, as well as SM-3 that are capable
of intercepting ballistic missiles. Moreover, 250 billion won[about
$172 million] will be sunk into an early warning radar system, two
trillion won [about $1.4 billion] for
an aerial early warning system (AEWS), 300 billion won
[about $207 million] for a missile
tracking and interception operational cont00rol system, 500 billion won[about
$344 million] for a "Soot-2" system, and so on.
If we put this all together, just the cost of acquiring them amounts to five to
seven trillion won[about
$3.4billion~4.8billion]. If we include in this the necessary operation
and maintenance expenses, which are usually about twice as much, the total cost
of the system skyrockets to about 20 trillion won[about $14 billion]. In a
situation where many people face a threat to their survival because of extreme
economic difficulty, fundamental questions must arise about whether it is truly
appropriate to use for mirage-like weapons systems many tens of trillions of won
of tax money squeezed out of the citizens.
The best thing to do is to cancel MD!
In this case, whether it is an ROK MD, or participation in the US MD, while MD
cannot give real protection against the threat of North Korean missiles,
squandering such an enormous amount of money on a device that will give no
protection means increasing the tension in South-North relations, intensifying
the arms race on the Korean peninsula, and provoking uncertainty in relations
with China and Russia. Expenses related to MD, if they include the fatal
maintenance costs, amount to several tens of trillions of won[about
$20~30 billion] .
In addition, North Korea's intention to reinforce the military strength of its
missiles, and desire to incapacitate the ROK-US MD, are related to the
reinforcement of the ROK-US MD's capabilities. It is an arms race between the
"spear and shield". While the US intends to press ahead with stationing an MD
system in Eastern Europe, an emerging "Second Cold War" could also be revived in
East Asia. That is because North Korea, and of course China and Russia, also are
focusing their attention on the East Asia MD system, in which the US is taking
the leading role. For this reason, before the ROK falls into the MD morass, the
Lee Myeong Bak administration must make a choice that takes into consideration
the economy, the national interests and regional peace.
* Note
by No Base Stories of Korea*
_ The conversion price from won to dollar is based on the approximate price of
1$=1450 won in March, 2009.
_ Cheong, Wooksik’s most recent English
translated writing is
http://nobasestorieskorea.blogspot.com/2009/03/text-fwd-north-koreas-satellite-versus.html
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Text fwd: North Korea’s Satellite versus US-ROK
Joint Military Exercise
_ Related site (Site info. provided by
Cheong, Wooksik)
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3949088
South Korea to Complete Missile Defense by 2012
_ Related site
The Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea
Bio
Writer, Wooksik Cheong
is one of the founding members and the
representative of
Peace Network, a non-governmental
organization formed in 1999, working for peace and disarmament in the Northeast
Asia and on the Korean Peninsula. The reason that he founded the Peace Network
was that he felt so sad about the North Korean humanitarian tragedy. He thought
that this tragedy would be resolved by making peace and reducing military
spending on the Korean Peninsula. While striving hard to realize these goals
with his colleagues since then, he recognized that it was much difficult to
achieve them in the short-term. He has worked as a full-time staff member from
the beginning of Peace Network to the present. As a peace activist, an
independent researcher, and a journalist, he has organized many campaigns and
conferences, written books and essays, and made speeches both in Korea and
abroad. He is the leading member of the
Korean committee for
the International Conference against the Asia Pacific Missile Defense and for
the End of Arms Race, Seoul, South Korea, April 16-18, 2009
and is one of the main speakers in the April 17
symposium program of the conference. The conference program will be officially
updated soon. (wooksik@gmail.com)
Translator Agatha D. Haun
is a PhD from the Stanford University, in
Japanese and Russian. Her other studies are in European and Asian languages,
history, social sciences. She has done Post-doctoral study at the University of
Helsinki, Finland. She is a Peace activist and free-lance translator for
non-governmental organizations in Europe and
Korea. She often loads her translated works
to the website of the
Tlaxcala, the ‘translators’ networks for
linguistic diversity’. (dillardhaun@gmail.com)
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